Predictive forecasting

Overview

Predictive forecasting is a Pro feature that analyzes your cross-border sales patterns and projects when you are likely to cross the EUR 10,000 OSS threshold. This gives you time to prepare for OSS registration or adjust your sales strategy.

This feature requires a Pro license. See the pricing page for details.

Projected threshold crossing date

The forecasting engine calculates an estimated date when your cumulative cross-border B2C sales will reach EUR 10,000. This projection is displayed on the Dashboard overview page as a calendar date with a confidence range.

For example, the plugin might show: “Projected threshold crossing: August 15, 2026 (range: July 28 - September 3).”

The projection updates automatically as new orders come in, becoming more accurate over time as the plugin has more data to work with.

Trend analysis

The forecasting section includes a trend chart showing:

• Monthly cross-border revenue — A bar chart of your EU B2C revenue per month for the current year.
• Cumulative threshold line — A line showing your running total against the EUR 10,000 threshold.
• Projected trajectory — A dashed line extending the cumulative total into future months based on current trends.

This visual makes it easy to see whether your cross-border sales are accelerating, steady, or declining.

Sales velocity tracking

Sales velocity measures the rate at which your cross-border sales are growing. The plugin calculates:

• Daily average — Average EUR of cross-border B2C sales per day over the last 30 days.
• Weekly average — Average EUR per week over the last 12 weeks.
• Monthly average — Average EUR per month for the current year.
• Velocity trend — Whether the rate is increasing, stable, or decreasing compared to the prior period.

These metrics are shown in the forecasting panel on the overview page. They help you understand not just where you are relative to the threshold, but how fast you are moving toward it.

How it works

The forecasting algorithm uses a weighted moving average that gives more importance to recent sales data while still accounting for longer-term patterns. It also factors in:

• Seasonal patterns — If your store has been active for more than one year, the algorithm considers seasonal trends from the previous year.
• Growth trends — Sustained increases or decreases in cross-border sales are reflected in the projection.
• Order frequency — Both the number of orders and the average order value contribute to the forecast.

The algorithm requires at least 30 days of order data before producing a projection. Before that point, the dashboard displays a message indicating that more data is needed.

Tips

• Use forecasting for planning — If the projected date is within the current year, start preparing for OSS registration now.
• Check monthly — Review the trend chart monthly to see how your trajectory is evolving.
• Combine with notifications — Set your email notification threshold conservatively, and use the forecast to double-check whether the alert timing makes sense.
• Do not treat projections as guarantees — Forecasts are estimates based on historical data. Unusual events like a viral product or a sales promotion can shift the actual crossing date significantly.